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CREB®'s Q3 2020 Housing Report released
City of Calgary, October 22, 2020 –
Third-quarter activity was far better than original expectations, as sales activity in the city improved by nearly 12 per cent over last year's levels.
Some of the shift in the third quarter reflects activity that likely would have occurred in the second quarter. The housing market also benefited from easing lending rates and previous price declines. Gains were driven by all property types except apartment condominiums.
"As the economy started to re-open, we saw some improvements in the economic indicators," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.
"Most industries are not back to pre-pandemic levels, but over the past three months we have seen notable improvement across most industries."
The gains this quarter did not offset all of the earlier declines, but the year-to-date decline eased to nine per cent. This is a significant improvement from the first half of the year, where sales were sitting 20 per cent below last year's levels.
New listings were also on the rise. It was enough to cause inventories to trend up from the lower levels recorded earlier in the year, but inventories remain well below the levels recorded last year.
Overall, the months of supply did tighten to levels well below the past two years. Improved supply/demand balances did support some modest improvements in prices, which trended up in the third quarter compared to the second quarter and remained only one per cent below last year's levels.
Current conditions in the housing market are surprising, but there are several reasons to still be cautious:
The current job market: Unemployment levels remain exceptionally high and there is added concern regarding additional job losses coming in the energy sector. If this situation persists, it could result in weaker demand and rising listings.
A second wave of COVID-19 and further shutdowns: Widespread closures are currently not expected, but if they do occur, this could be problematic for many businesses that cannot survive a second shutdown.
Government support: The housing market and overall economy has benefited from significant government income support programs, and banks allowing homeowners to defer their mortgage. As these benefits end, there is a risk that some households will not be able to keep their home, causing a rise in new listings and pushing up supply levels. If this occurs, it could erode some of the recent gains in pricing.
For more information, please download CREB®'s Q3 2020 Calgary & Region Quarterly Update Report here.
Wednesday, December 18, 2013 - Real Estate
Housing market defies expectations with latest CREA figures Add to ...
The Globe and Mail
Published Monday, Dec. 16 2013, 9:16 AM EST
Last updated Tuesday, Dec. 17 2013, 12:14 PM EST
Canada’s housing market is on track to close out 2013 on a stronger note than last year, defying the expectations of economists just a few months ago.
The picture is mixed across the country, and sales are certainly not on a runaway train. But their strength contrasts starkly with the plethora of lacklustre forecasts that were made earlier this year, after sales fell as a result of Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s decision to tighten mortgage insurance rules in July, 2012.
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[Real estate signs sit outside a condominium building on Lake Shore Blvd. West in Toronto.]
Real estate signs sit outside a condominium building on Lake Shore Blvd. West in Toronto. For The Globe and Mail
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[Higher home prices in 2014 will incentivize home owners to sell- and start to boost inventories and home resales, a move away from the investor driven market of 2013. Bobbi Rebell reports.]
Higher home prices in 2014 will incentivize home owners to sell- and start to boost inventories and home resales, a move away from the investor driven market of 2013. Bobbi Rebell reports. Reuters
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Video: Big shift for U.S. housing market in 2014
[A for sale sign outside townhouses in the Fairview neighbourhood of Vancouver on Monday, March 4, 2013.]
A for sale sign outside townhouses in the Fairview neighbourhood of Vancouver on Monday, March 4, 2013. For The Globe and Mail
Market View
Video: Market View: Is Canada in a housing bubble? Analysts can't agree
[Vancouver's real estate scene; Fairview slopes townhouses under construction (foreground) and high rise condo towers in the city's Yaletown district, May 3, 2013.]
Vancouver's real estate scene; Fairview slopes townhouses under construction (foreground) and high rise condo towers in the city's Yaletown district, May 3, 2013. The Canadian Press
MARKET VIEW
Video: Market View: Canada's housing market poised for stable 2014
The degree to which prices are surpassing expectations is even higher. That’s a development that could be worrying to policy makers in Ottawa, amid international debate about how overvalued Canadian house prices are and whether a bubble has formed.
The Canadian Real Estate Association said on Monday that it now expects the average price of houses sold over the Multiple Listing Service to have risen by 5.2 per cent this year, to $382,200. Heading into 2013, CREA had been expecting the average price to rise just 0.3 per cent; it became even more pessimistic in March when it revised its forecast and called for a 0.2-per-cent decline, to $362,600.
CREA’s prediction for the number of houses that will change hands this year is now 458,200, which would be a 0.8-per-cent increase from 2012. In contrast, at the outset of 2013, CREA was expecting sales to fall 2 per cent, and by March it was expecting sales to fall by 2.9 per cent.
CREA noted that rising mortgage rates appear to have bolstered sales this fall by prompting buyers to move more quickly than they otherwise would have. The increase in average prices is being skewed to a degree by the strong rebounds in pricier markets such as Toronto and Vancouver.
But CREA, which represents real estate agents in Canada and tracks sales via the MLS system, is calling for sales to grow by 3.7 per cent in 2014, while it expects average prices to rise by 2.3 per cent.
“While we would not describe the housing market as the ‘comeback kid’ just yet, the market is certainly showing us its reluctance to fade to the background,” said Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Sonya Gulati.
She expects that higher mortgage rates will eat into affordability and prevent the market from taking off over the next few years. That would put a damper on economic growth but would be good news for worrisome household debt levels and house prices. Deutsche Bank economists in New York released a report last week saying they believe that Canadian house prices are 60 per cent too high, and that “Canada is in trouble.”
The ratio of household credit-market debt to disposable income climbed to 163.7 per cent in the third quarter, Statistics Canada reported last week. “Household leverage continues to rise despite mortgage rates increasing roughly 40 to 60 basis points since the spring,” National Bank analysts said in a research note on Monday.
At the same time, rising house prices led to a 1.8-per-cent increase, or $20-billion, in the value of real estate assets last quarter, Royal Bank economists noted.
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said last Thursday that he expects imbalances in household borrowing and residential investment to stabilize and then gradually unwind in coming years, leading to a soft landing in the housing market. But he also noted that “there is a risk that household imbalances could keep building and set the stage for a sharp correction down the road.”
Resales rose 5.9 per cent in November on a year-over-year basis, with the monthly showing coming in slightly above the 10-year average, CREA said. The average sales price was 9.8 per cent higher, which Ms. Gulati noted is “far above the pace of household income growth.”
The MLS Home Price Index, which seeks to account for changes in the types or locations of houses that are selling to create a more apples-to-apples comparison, rose by 4.1 per cent.
That was the fastest rate of price growth in 16 months, according to Bank of Montreal economist Robert Kavcic. Last week, Teranet and National Bank released their house price index, which showed that prices rose 3.4 per cent in November from a year earlier, compared with a 3.1-per-cent gain in October. On a month-to-month basis, the index declined 0.1 per cent from October to November.
Canadian home sales by city, dollar volume (in millions)
Area Nov. 2012 Nov. 2013 Percent change
Calgary 757.9 967.2
18.6%
Fraser Valley 371.3 478.4
-7.2%
Halifax-Dartmouth 96.6 91.8
13%
Kitchener-Waterloo 157.1 151.6
12.2%
Montreal CMA 867.1 847.5
2%
Ottawa 328.5 323.9
-11.3%
Regina 70.5 79.4
-26.4%
Saksatoon 114.6 130.1
3.4%
Sherbrooke CMA 27.3 21.7
-7.3%
Sudbury 41.7 35.2
32.3%
Toronto 2,811.5 3,444
-19%
Vancouver 1,182.3 1,852.1
2.8%
Windsor-Essed 61.4 64.2
1.4%
Residential home sales, Canada (seasonally adjusted)
SOURCE: CREA
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